The Coming Mini Ice Age 2015 and Beyond

Solar activity affects the Earth in many ways, some which we are still coming to understand.

• Damage to 21st-century satellites and other high-tech systems in space can be caused by an active Sun which generates geomagnetic storms. Even in inactive solar cycles, the Sun emits large solar flares—which could cause billions of dollars in damage to the world’s high-tech infrastructure—from GPS navigation to power grids to air travel to financial services.
• Radiation hazards for astronauts and satellites can be caused by a quiet Sun. Weak solar winds allow more galactic cosmic rays into the inner solar system.
• Weather on Earth can also be affected. According to Bob Berman, astronomer for The Old Farmer’s Almanac: Recently, NOAA scientists concluded that four factors determined global temperatures: carbon dioxide levels, volcanic eruptions, Pacific El Niño pattern, and the Sun’s activity.
• Global climate change including long-term periods of global cold, rainfall, drought, and other weather shifts may also be influenced by solar cycle activity, based on historical evidence:

Times of depressed solar activity seem to correspond with times of global cold. For example, during the 70-year period from 1645 to 1715, few, if any, sunspots were seen, even during expected sunspot maximums. Western Europe entered a climate period known as the “Maunder Minimum” or “Little Ice Age.” Temperatures dropped by 1.8 to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit.

Conversely, times of increased solar activity have corresponded with global warning. During the 12th and 13th centuries, the Sun was active, and the European climate was quite mild.

Yearly-averaged sunspot numbers from 1610 to 2008. Researchers believe upcoming Solar Cycle 24 will be similar to the cycle that peaked in 1928, marked by a red arrow. Credit: NASA/MSFC

Solar Cycle 24

The Sun is currently in an active phase of its 11-year solar cycle. The current cycle, called Solar Cycle 24, began in 2008. Here’s some history of this cycle:

• Solar Minimum: According to NOAA and NASA, the sunspot cycle hit an unusually deep bottom from 2007 to 2009. In fact, in 2008 and 2009, there were almost NO sunspots, a very unusual situation that had not happened for almost a century. Due to the weak solar activity, galactic cosmic rays were at record levels.
• Solar Maximum: The Sun’s record-breaking sleep ended in 2010. In 2011, sunspot counts jumped up.  However, they remained fairly low with a small peak in February of 2012. Throughout 2013, the Sun was relatively quiet.As of August 2013, NASA reported, “The sun’s global magnetic field is about to reverse polarity.

This is a sign that Solar Max has arrived . . . “Yet, the the sunspot number was only 70 at this point; this may be the lowest peak since 1906 (which hit 64 sunspots). To get lower, you would need to go back in time to cycles 5 and 6 during the Dalton minimum in 1800s when sunspots counted around 50. Before that was the Maunder minimum from 1645 to 1715 when sunspots were close to zero for about 75 years.

• 2014 Update:

The Sun seems to be heating up. The New Year started out with a burst of solar activity from active sunspots, leading to beautiful aurora borealis. As of January 10, the sunspot number was 138.  Stay tuned! We will update this sunspot page seasonally to report on the progress of Solar Cycle 24.

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 99 in February of 2013 (See last April prediction here.). We are currently about three years into Cycle 24. Increased activity in the last few months has raised the predicted maximum and moved it earlier in 2013.

The current predicted size still make this the smallest sunspot cycle in over 80 years.

 The Earth’s Temperatures are about to to get a whole lot colder!

In Table form it looks something like this….

As you follow the numbers they peak around the beginning of 2014. They are on a gentle slide down as the above graph suggests  (See http://solarwatch.wordpress.com/2011/12/24/update-on-solar-cycle-24/ )

Cycle 24 10.7cm Radio Flux Prediction (December 2011)

Year Mon  95%   50%    5%

2011  11 139.8 116.6  93.3
2011  12 142.7 119.0  95.2
2012   1 145.6 121.3  97.0
2012   2 148.3 123.5  98.7
2012   3 151.0 125.7 100.4
2012   4 153.5 127.8 102.1
2012   5 155.9 129.8 103.6
2012   6 158.2 131.7 105.2
2012   7 160.4 133.5 106.6
2012   8 162.5 135.2 108.0
2012   9 164.4 136.8 109.2
2012  10 166.2 138.3 110.4
2012  11 167.8 139.7 111.5
2012  12 169.3 140.9 112.6
2013   1 170.7 142.1 113.5
2013   2 171.9 143.1 114.3
2013   3 173.0 144.0 115.1
2013   4 174.0 144.9 115.7
2013   5 174.8 145.5 116.3
2013   6 175.5 146.1 116.8
2013   7 176.0 146.6 117.1
2013   8 176.4 146.9 117.4
2013   9 176.7 147.1 117.6
2013  10 176.8 147.3 117.7
2013  11 176.8 147.3 117.7
2013  12 176.7 147.2 117.6
2014   1 176.5 147.0 117.5
2014   2 176.2 146.7 117.2
2014   3 175.7 146.3 116.9
2014   4 175.1 145.8 116.5
2014   5 174.4 145.2 116.1
2014   6 173.7 144.6 115.5
2014   7 172.8 143.8 114.9
2014   8 171.8 143.0 114.2
2014   9 170.7 142.1 113.5
2014  10 169.5 141.1 112.7
2014  11 168.3 140.1 111.9
2014  12 167.0 139.0 111.0
2015   1 165.6 137.8 110.0
2015   2 164.1 136.6 109.1
2015   3 162.6 135.3 108.0
2015   4 161.0 134.0 107.0
2015   5 159.4 132.6 105.9
2015   6 157.7 131.2 104.8
2015   7 155.9 129.8 103.6
2015   8 154.2 128.3 102.5
2015   9 152.4 126.8 101.3
2015  10 150.5 125.3 100.1
2015  11 148.6 123.8  98.9
2015  12 146.8 122.2  97.7
2016   1 144.8 120.7  96.5
2016   2 142.9 119.1  95.3
2016   3 141.0 117.5  94.1
2016   4 139.1 116.0  92.9
2016   5 137.1 114.4  91.7
2016   6 135.2 112.8  90.5
2016   7 133.2 111.3  89.3
2016   8 131.3 109.7  88.2
2016   9 129.4 108.2  87.0
2016  10 127.5 106.7  85.9
2016  11 125.6 105.2  84.8
2016  12 123.7 103.7  83.7

What does all this mean?

• Some theorists believe that there is a correlation between Earth’s temperatures and both the level of solar activity and the length of the solar cycle. The low solar activity levels and the delayed start to the solar cycle indicate that we’re in a cooling phase. It’s possible that the delayed start means a delayed end.
• It is expected that Solar Cycle 24 and Solar Cycle 25 will be relatively quiet-to-average cycles, leading to a cooling pattern over the next few decades.
• Temperatures have been colder than it would have been otherwise. Sunspots are simlar to a bathtub of lukewarm water; if you trickle in cold or hot water, it may take a while to notice the difference. If this cooling phase on Earth is offset by any warming caused by increasing greenhouse gases, they also raise the question of whether an eventual warming cycle could lead to more rapid warming on Earth than expected.