by Tyler DurdenThu, 10/22/2020 – 10:47
Could it be possible that President Trump has one more miracle up his sleeve?
At this point, many Democrats are anticipating a Joe Biden landslide on Election Day even though his own campaign manager admits that the “inflated national public polling numbers” should not be trusted.
The truth is that both campaigns know that this is going to be a tight race that comes right down to the wire, and there are two key groups of voters that have traditionally been heavily Democratic that could end up swinging the election to Trump.
The Biden campaign has been counting on Black and Latino voters to vote like they normally do, but recent numbers indicate that may not happen this time around.
For example, Tom Del Beccaro has pointed out that a survey that was conducted by Rasmussen in September showed that Trump had an approval rating of 45 percent among the Black community…
In September, according to polling done by Rasmussen, Trump’s approval rating among African Americans reached 45%. Keep in mind that President Trump only received 8% of the Black vote in 2016. If Trump received just 16% of the Black vote this November, let alone an even higher number, that would all but secure states like Michigan for Trump.
In addition to Michigan, a dramatic shift in the Black vote could also help Trump win the critical swing state of Pennsylvania, and I will discuss that more below.
But first let’s talk about the movement that we are seeing among Latino voters. If you can believe it, one recent survey actually had Trump leading among Latino voters in the state of Florida…
Trump could well receive a historic level of support from Latino Voters in 2020. In Florida, a NBC/Marist poll had Trump leading among Latinos 50% to 46% over Biden, whereas, in 2016, Hillary won among Latinos in Florida 62% to 35%. That would be a 15% swing toward Trump if it held up on Election Day.
After the first debate between Biden and Trump, a Telemundo poll showed Trump winning the debate overwhelmingly 66% to 34%. Snap media polls tend to reflect the sentiment of their viewers. Thus, it is no surprise that CNN viewers said Biden won the debate. The fact that Telemundo viewers decisively picked Trump as the winner, along with polls like those cited above in Florida, portend Trump getting the highest ever Latino support of any Republican presidential candidate.
Trump narrowly won Florida in 2016, and he desperately needs to win it again in 2020.
If these numbers are anywhere close to accurate, he would seem to have a really good shot of doing so.
Another encouraging sign for the Trump campaign is the fact that Republicans continue to narrow the voter registration gap with Democrats in the state. Just check out these numbers…
There currently are 5.30 million registered Democrats and 5.17 million registered Republicans in the state – an edge of about 134,000 voters in favor of the Democrats. But the size of that margin has fallen from 327,000 in 2016 and 658,000 in 2008.
Since Trump won the state when the gap was 327,000 in 2016, you would have to think that his chances are pretty good now that the gap has been reduced to just 134,000 here in 2020.
Meanwhile, Republicans are also narrowing the voter registration gap in the state of Pennsylvania…
Three months ago, the Philadelphia Inquirer conducted a similar analysis when it found that “since the 2016 primary election, Republicans have added about 165,000 net voters, while Democrats added only about 30,000. Democrats still maintain an 800,000-voter edge over Republicans. But that’s down from 936,000 in 2016, when Trump still won the state by less than 1%.”
This is another must win state for Trump, and as I alluded to above, a shift in support among Black voters could potentially be huge. Core urban areas such as Philadelphia have traditionally been crucial when Democrats have carried the state, and so if Trump can carve into that advantage a good bit that may be enough to keep Pennsylvania in his column this time around.
This was supposed to be a year when Democrats absolutely swamped Republicans when it came to registering new voters, but the truth is that they have been dropping the ball in state after state.
Another two key swing states where Republicans have been registering more voters than Democrats are Nevada and North Carolina…
In Nevada, where Democrats routinely out-register Republicans in the run-up to elections, the GOP has bested Democrats for at least five months since the pandemic hit. In North Carolina, where a competitive Senate race could determine which party controls the upper chamber, Republican registration has leapt by 51,381 over Democratic since mid-March.
Nobody really expects Trump to win Nevada, but if enough Latino voters shift his way we could end up seeing a major surprise.
Black voters make up a sizable portion of the voting population in North Carolina, and everyone is expecting a very tight race there, and so moving the needle just a little bit among those voters could make all the difference for Trump in that state.
Before I end this article, there are two really memorable quotes that I would like to share with you.
The first comes from Republican consultant Charlie Gerow. He has been deeply immersed in Republican politics for decades, and this is how he responded when he was asked where things currently stand in Pennsylvania…
“I’d say we’re where we were four years ago, maybe slightly better,” Gerow told me. “Of course, an incumbent should be very far ahead at this stage if they’re going to win. But Trump’s a special case. I believe there’s a significant under-vote that doesn’t show up in the polls. A lot of Trump supporters don’t want to be visible.”
Gerow adds that the polls aren’t catching the surging enthusiasm for Trump in the state’s western oil tier. “These counties that were traditionally rock-ribbed Democratic are registering Republicans, a sign of a Trump victory bigger than last time,” he says. “It’s hard to fathom the support for Trump in the western region until you see the yard signs and talk to the folks in the bars and after church.”
This next quote comes from a Democratic strategist named Chris Kofinis. He believes that Joe Biden will definitely win the popular vote, but he is warning that all of the national polls that we are seeing are lulling Democrats into a false sense of security…
National polls are absolutely, utterly useless and worthless. They will consistently show a Biden lead, by a small amount or a large amount, because all of the blue states, like California and New York, are going to go overwhelmingly to Biden. There’s no question that Biden will win the popular vote. But what national polls ignore is battleground states where you’re talking about leads of a few percentage points. In my opinion, national polls should be banned from existence in the last month of an election. We don’t elect the president nationally. Why are we doing national polls? It’s ridiculous. It puts out a false narrative that gives people either a false sense of security or a false sense of dread.
It will be fascinating to see how the race evolves over these last two weeks.
Most of the national polls still look really good for Biden, but most Americans are still convinced that Trump will end up winning.
In fact, a recent Gallup survey found that 56 percent of Americans believe that Trump will win and only 40 percent of Americans believe that Biden will win.
As I write this article, the numbers show that 37.3 million Americans have already voted, and that number is jumping higher with each passing day.
In the end, this election will probably be determined by just six states. The results in Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Arizona are going to mean everything, and the Biden campaign feels like they have the upper hand at this point.
But if Trump can convince enough Black and Latino voters to come his direction, that could change everything.
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